The Dodgers Are Big Favorites In Our MLB Forecast But Anything Can Happen In October
FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast uses a pitcher-adjusted Elo model to project the winner of every game.
The Dodgers are the heavy favorites to win the World Series this year, according to FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast. The team has a 25% chance of winning it all, which is more than double the next closest team, the Astros. The Dodgers have a strong lineup, led by Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Trea Turner. They also have a deep pitching staff, led by Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin.
Every pitcher who has started or is scheduled to start a game this season is rated by rolling game score.
FiveThirtyEight's pitcher-adjusted Elo model uses a rolling game score to rate pitchers. Rolling game score is a metric that measures a pitcher's performance over a period of time, typically one month. It takes into account factors such as strikeouts, walks, hits, and home runs allowed. The rolling game score is then used to calculate a pitcher's Elo rating, which is a measure of their overall skill.
Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth, or win the World Series.
FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast also includes playoff odds for each team. The playoff odds tell you how likely a team is to win their division, earn a wild card berth, or win the World Series. The Dodgers have the highest playoff odds of any team, with a 93% chance of making the playoffs and a 25% chance of winning the World Series.
With FiveThirtyEight's 2023 MLB projections out, a look at all of the major win total projections ahead of Opening Day.
FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast is one of the most accurate in the industry. The forecast has correctly predicted the winner of the World Series in each of the past three years. With the 2023 MLB season about to begin, FiveThirtyEight's forecast is a valuable tool for fans who want to know which teams are most likely to succeed.
Here are some additional insights from FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast:
- The Astros are the second-most likely team to win the World Series, with a 12% chance.
- The Yankees are the third-most likely team to win the World Series, with an 11% chance.
- The Mets are the fourth-most likely team to win the World Series, with a 10% chance.
- The Braves are the fifth-most likely team to win the World Series, with a 9% chance.
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